Macroeconomic impact of the supply shock during COVID-19 pandemic in India

Purpose: The study focuses on examining the impact of the supply shock on the Indian macroeconomic variables during the COVID-19 period. Design/methodology/approach: Time-varying factor augmented vector autoregressive model has been employed to study the asymmetry in transmission of supply shock on Indian economy during pre- and post-COVID-19 times. Findings: The authors find that with supply shock, retail food inflation outpaced in COVID-19 times. Production levels reported by IIP fell to abysmally low levels in the post-COVID-19 times when the economy stalled. The liquidity stimulus provided by the central bank led to the negative response of policy rates to the supply shocks during the COVID-19 times. Originality/value: The study stands novel in examining the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Indian economy through the lenses of asymmetric transmission of supply shock during pre- and post-COVID-19 times. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

A Descriptive Study on Impact of Covid-19 on Different Sectors of Indian Economy

Rising cases of corona virus have significantly affected the Indian economy at large. Due to the corona virus outbreak, the Indian economy every day was expected to lose over the US $ 4.5 Billion. (Acuite Ratings). Due to the widespread of covid-19 cases, the Indian Government has lock down the country for quite 60 days which adversely affected commercial activities and the Indian economy. It hinders international trade which in turn stops the import-export of raw materials & hence negatively affected manufacturing at large. Despite the manufacturing sector, various other sectors were also got affected by the corona virus outbreak. The Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) which are considered to be the backbone of all Indian sectors and also engaged in export activities, has also been impacted by the covid-19 pandemic. MSMEs contributed around 24.63% of GDP from service units as well as 6.11% of the GDP from manufacturing (Confederation of Indian Industry) but this pandemic restricted working and hence made a downfall in the GDP. This paper is based on descriptive analysis based on secondary data. The purpose of the research is to investigate the key areas where the pandemic made its economic influence. It is expected that this study will help design conceptual models for the researcher to overcome this pandemic. Copyright © 2022, Anka Publishers. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Impact of Indian Revenues During COVID-19 Using Social Network Analysis

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic affected economy resulting in job loss for many throughout the world. The main objective is to analyze the Indian revenues before COVID-19, i.e., before December 2019 and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. A comparison is done between the revenues that are collected from various departments sectors for the years 2019–2020 and 2020–2021 to find out how the COVID-19 has affected the Indian economy as well as jobs for millions of people. Studying the network through social network analysis helps us to understand clearly how the Indian economy has changed during the COVID-19 period. The network is studied using an average path along with a weighted path to ascertain the small word characteristics. Centrality measures helps us to understand the characteristics of the dataset. The tools used to analyze them are designed using Gephi. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

Impact of Government reforms on Indian MSMEs during COVID 19: An analytical study

The whole world is going through a revolutionary change but this time it is not because of changes in technology or government policies. The entire world has changed in order to adapt to the unwarranted pandemic situation created by COVID-19 virus. The economic growth is negative across the world and the Indian economy is no exception. The worst affected is the micro, small and medium scale sector of India, which faced some major challenges. The paper explores the problems these MSMEs (Micro, Small & Medium scale Enterprises) faced during this pandemic and the crisis management that the government can do for the revival of this sector. The paper analyses the government reforms and the changes that Indian MSMEs need to bring to survive such hard times.

“Covid-19 and the Policy Responses in India.”

This article analyses the changes in monetary policy decisions made in five major economies around the world in the aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak in India. How the fiscal and monetary policies responded to the pandemic situation and how the economy was controlled and protected from the danger are discussed in the study in detail. During the pandemic, the contribution of fiscal and monetary policies is discussed in this article © 2022. Specialusis Ugdymas.All Rights Reserved

The Indian economy at 75

India became independent in 1947 and, beginning in 1950, it adopted a democratic constitution and a socialist development model that relied heavily on protectionism, promotion of heavy industries by the public-sector and strict controls on private investment through licensing. While democracy flourished, the economy languished. After three decades in 1980, per-capita incomes had risen barely more than 50%. This failure led to a very gradual process of liberalisation in the 1980s, with a balance-of-payments crisis in 1991 triggering a more fundamental switch to a market economy model. Growth began picking up in the late 1980s and greatly accelerated in the 2000s. Poverty saw a sharp decline in the post-liberalisation era as well. While COVID-19 shock has dented growth, with a number of reforms already in place, prospects for 7–8% annual growth in the forthcoming decades look excellent.

Covid-19 and its impact on Indian stock market

Stock market is place where financial securities tradingtakes place of public companies. Public company first liststheir shares in the primary market. There are two primarymarket in context of India that is bombaystockexchnage (bse) and national stock exchange(nse). Investors can buy and sell their shares throughsecondary market. Covid-19 changed every event extraordinarily. Due to covid-19 caused "lockdown"everyeconomic sector went down due to no monetary transactionand shut down of every business sector. Indian economy hadnever experienced such a massive breakdown in both demandand supply in its past. The share market first hit the economy downturn at the beginning of the pandemic and the after some month the market increased in increasing order as thecovid-19 decreased.in this study we consider the aspects like gdp, indianeconomy, gold market, stock market-covid 19, stock return, investor behavior and economy downturn. © 2022 Author(s).

Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on digital banking: E-collaboration between banks and Fintech in the Indian economy

The COVID-19 outbreak has drastically changed the life of every person and has infected people in 185 countries. Since no vaccine has been developed for this disease so far, lockdown, work from home, and social distancing and only a few essential services were allowed to open. Lockdown and restricted movement of people was the only solution to control this crisis. These steps taken by all the countries have stopped all the commercial activities which left all businesses, banks, and financial institutions to count losses and cost. The big question which has emerged that whether e-collaboration between banks and technology continues to be the key to success for finding solutions to the problems in this new environment which COVID-19 has created. This chapter examines the way the digital banking collaboration between banks and Fintech can resolve the problems provided by the COVID-19 pandemic and control the impending economic fallout in India and across the world. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

A dissection of Indian growth using a DSGE filter.

In order to build a strong and sustainable recovery post the COVID-19 pandemic, we need to draw important observations from the growth experience of the past. In this context, this paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that takes into account persistent growth rate shocks to decompose the Indian GDP into potential output and output gap. Apart from analysing the trajectory of potential output-output gap, it also examines their underlying drivers. The results suggest that a combined deceleration in neutral and investment-specific technology growth post 2016, brought down the potential growth to around 6 per cent in 2020Q1. The output gap also witnessed a persistent decline since 2018Q1, primarily due to weak demand and a rise in investment adjustment costs reflecting heightened stress in the investment and financial sectors. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken which shows that the estimates of output gap from the model possess competing inflation forecasting ability compared to HP filtered output gap.

Role of HR in Pandemic Mediated Economic Recession

Human resource management has undergone tremendous changes in the past couple of years. The paradigm shift in the outlook and functioning of HR managers have evolved over time to suit to the current business models and create value. However, CoVID-19 pandemic mediated economic slowdown and change in working methodologies that evolved along with it, will have significant impact on how future businesses will be run and the role of HRM in it. In this brief review, we evaluate the current situation and do a comprehensive analysis with comparison with past recessions. We investigate the evolution of HRM over the years, especially 2007-09 crisis. Finally, we integrated past experiences and present trends to postulate the role of HRM in the post-CoVID-19 world.

The effect of economic policy uncertainty index on the Indian economy in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose The paper tries to analyse empirically the impact of India's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index on different macro-economic variables of India, like import, export, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate and stock market during pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 era. Design/methodology/approach Although there exist several works where relationship and volatility among the stock markets and macro-economic indicators during the COVID-19 pandemic have been estimated, but till now none of the studies examined the effect of EPU index on different macro-economic variables in the Indian context along with the stock market due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. This is considered a noteworthy gap and hence opens up a new dimension for examination. To get a clear picture, monthly data from January, 2012 to September, 2021 have been considered where January, 2012-February, 2020 is taken as the pre-COVID-19 period and March, 2020-September, 2021 as COVID-19 period. All the data are converted into log natural. The authors applied DCC-GARCH model to investigate the impact of EPU index on volatility of selected variables over the study period across a multivariate framework and Markov regime-switching model to examine the switching over of the variables. Findings The results of dynamic conditional correlation - multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model indicates the presence of volatility in the dependent variables arising out of economic policy uncertainty considering the segmentation of the study period into pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19. The results of Markov regime-switching model show the variables make a significant move from low-volatility regime to high-volatility regime due to the presence of COVID-19. Research limitations/implications It can be implied that impact of EPU in terms of volatility on the Indian Stock Market will lead to unfavourable investment conditions for the prospective investors. Even, the different macro-economic variables are to suffer from the volatility arising out of EPU across a long time horizon as confirmed from the DCC-MGARCH model. Originality/value The study is original in nature. It adds superior values from the new and significant findings from the study empirically. Application of DCC-MGARCH model and Markov regime switching model makes the study an innovative one in terms of methodology and findings.

Impact of COVID 19 on Indian Migrant Workers: Decoding Twitter Data by Text Mining.

The Coronavirus pandemic has induced a huge economic crisis. The norms of social distancing and consequent lockdown to flatten the curve of this infection has brought economic activity across the globe to a standstill. A mass exodus of workers from major urban centres of India to their native villages started. Mental, financial and emotional agony inflicted due to job-loss, lack of job and livelihood opportunities led to this. A massive macroeconomic crisis for the country with serious ramifications has consequently exploded. The present study explores and captures the diffusion and discovery of information about the various facets of reverse migration in India using Twitter mining. Tweets provide extensive opportunities to extract social perceptions and insights relevant to migration of workers. The massive Twitter data were analysed by applying text mining technique and sentiment analysis. The results of the analysis highlight five major themes. The sentiment analysis confirms the confidence and trust in the minds of masses about tiding through this crisis with government support. The study brings out the major macroeconomic ramifications of this reverse migration. The study's findings indicate that a concentrated joint intervention by the State and Central Governments is critical for successfully tiding through this crisis and restoring normalcy. The subsequent policy measures announced by the government are being critically gauged. In addition, the authors have proposed measures to ameliorate this damage on the formal and informal sectors.

Migrant in my own country: The long march of migrant workers in India during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-Failure of postcolonial governments to decolonize Bihar and rebuild Indian civilization after 1947.

The world is passing through the unprecedented crisis of COVID 19 pandemic. A large section of the global population has been living under mandatory mass quarantine, the lockdown, as a strategy towards slowing down the expansion of the pandemic. This lockdown is being eased out across world in a phase wise manner. India being one of the most populous countries is hardest hit by the pandemic and soon the number of positive cases is likely to touch one million mark. One of the most significant phenomenons observed during the Indian lockdown, has emerged as the long march of migrant workers from cities to their native places. Bihar, one of the Indian provinces is the major provider of migrant labourers for Indian agriculture and the industry sectors. As depicted on social media and television, the plight of migrants was disturbing and exposed modern Indian democracy's vulnerabilities. Many of them had to walk on foot for thousands of kilometers, with their hungry families, from the industrial cities to their native places. Nothing has changed for the migrant workers through the past three centuries, including the first century of postcolonial India. Why are they called migrant workers? Are they not citizens of India? How come being Bihari-a native of Bihar province, one of the primary sources of migrant workers in India, become a stigma? So how did the historical symbol of the most significant accomplishments of Indian history, literature, science, and culture come to be identified with poor migrant workers' image? Bihar's underdevelopment is often blamed on corrupt local politicians and caste politics. However, the history of migrant workers from Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh states of India is worth a closer attention for possible solutions. The phenomenon has a historical linkage with the fall of once upon a time the great Indian civilization; centuries of occupation, colonization, slavery, and indentured servitude. India has made steady progress in economic terms since 1947, India's independence from the British empire. The economy's size and rise in gross domestic product (GDP) are meaningless if ordinary citizens continue to be disfranchised, not protected, and liberated from the colonial processes. For India's sovereign economic development, there is no option but to invest in long-term and rebuild the civilization and build a system of the indigenous Indian knowledge economy based on the core principles and values of the Indian civilization.